Detecting Unfair Dice in Casinos with Bayes’ Theorem

The Chemical Statistician

Introduction

I saw an interesting problem that requires Bayes’ Theorem and some simple R programming while reading a bioinformatics textbook.  I will discuss the math behind solving this problem in detail, and I will illustrate some very useful plotting functions to generate a plot from R that visualizes the solution effectively.

The Problem

The following question is a slightly modified version of Exercise #1.2 on Page 8 in “Biological Sequence Analysis” by Durbin, Eddy, Krogh and Mitchison.

An occasionally dishonest casino uses 2 types of dice.  Of its dice, 97% are fair but 3% are unfair, and a “five” comes up 35% of the time for these unfair dice.  If you pick a die randomly and roll it, how many “fives”  in a row would you need to see before it was most likely that you had picked an unfair die?”

Read more to learn how to create the following…

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